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    Technical analysis and trading recommendation for USDX, USD related pairs against CAD,JPY, and CHF for April 23, 2015

    Existing home sales jumped in March to their highest annual rate in 18 months, while unsold inventory showed needed improvement, according to the National Association of Realtors. Led by the Midwest, all major regions experienced strong sales gains in March and are above their year-over-year growth rate.

    Today, traders eye on unemployment claims. For the last 2 weeks, data was disappointed. In case today's readings printed above 289k, the greenback will extend its rally. Data on new homes and flash manufacturing are expected to be on positive bias.

    Ahead of today's heavy data, the USDX trading higher at 98.15, yesterday's closing price was 98.03. The 50Dsma is found at 97.13. The double bottom was place between 96.33 and 96.14. Intraday resistance is found at 98.35. In case the price breached above 96.35, it can move towards 98.45, 98.70, and 98.75.


    Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI hit 49.7 (50.3 in March). Operating conditions deteriorate in April, albeit at a marginal rate. Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index is at 49.7 (52.0 in March). Production declines slightly for the first time since July 2014.

    The US dollar is trading at 120.00 at Thursday's Asian session, compared to 119.90 at the end of the day. The pair extends consecutive 3-day gains and closed above 50dsma. We have been recommending buying on every dip with sl 118.00. The pair changed its direction from 118.54. Probably, the double bottom was formed between 118.33 and 118.54. The nearest support is seen at 119.80 50Dsma and 119.60 20Dsma. We still recommend buying on dips. Those who followed my buying recommendation can move their trailing sl at 119.30 from 119.20. If we stop out, we will buy on a minor dip again. For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 120.20 with targets at 120.40 and 120.70. In four hour chart 200Dsma 120.10 has been acting as strong resistance. Hourly support is found at 119.90 and strong support is seen at 119.30.

    Trade: Buy above 120.20

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    The pair paused its three days winning streak at yesterday's session lose 0.30%. After a steep fall in prices, the pair has been forming minor base between 1.2180 and 1.2190 within last three days. The 100Dema was found at 1.2220. Parallel resistance is found at 1.2290 20Wsma, and the previous support base at 1.2350. Until the price closes below 1.2350, the bearish view remains in play. In case the price closes above 1.2290 and 1.2350, we will reanalyze the charts. Intraday support is found at 1.2240, 1.2220, and 1.2200. We recommend selling below 1.2200. Buy above 1.2270 with small targets at 1.2290, 1.2300 and 1.2330.

    Trade: Sell below 1.2200


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    In April 2015, expectations for the Swiss economy brighten further, marking a continuation of the recovery of the economic outlook after the CHF shock at the start of 2015. ZEW CS indicator rose by 14.7 pointed to a reading of -23.2 points. On Wednesday, the SNB said that it had eliminated the number of institutions exempt from negative rates on public cash deposits held. The franc was traded lower against USD & EUR. For 4 weeks, the pair has been consolidating at the 200Dsma and 200Dema 0.9475. The pair gave a strong close. Strong resistance is found at 0.9720 61.8 fib level and 0.9740 200Hrsma in the four-hour chart. The pair can stretch maximum to 0.9760. We need to wait for a minor correction to buy. Until the pair closes above 0.9580, the weekly trend favors bulls and 0.9475 monthly trend favors bulls. In case the price closes below 0.9475, we can expect 300 pips to fall in the near term.


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    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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