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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on EUR/USD for May 01, 2015

Germany: According to the flash estimates of the Federal Statistical Office, retail turnover in March 2015 in Germany increased 3.5% in real terms and 3.2% in nominal terms compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, March turnover in March was in real terms 2.3 % and in nominal terms 1.8% down from the prints in February 2015. The unemployment rate still remained at a record low. Germany is the biggest economy in the eurozone. France: In March 2015, household consumption expenditure stepped back by 0.6% after increasing for four months in a row. This decline was mainly driven by the downturn in energy consumption.Spain: According to the flash estimate published by the INE, the annual inflation of the CPI in April 2015 is -0.6%.The Gross Domestic Product generated by the Spanish economy registered a 0.9% variation in the first quarter of 2015, as compared to the previous quarter, according to the flash estimate of quarterly GDP. This rate was two-tenths higher than that registered in the previous quarter (0.7%).Eurozone: Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.0% in April 2015, up from -0.1% in March, according to the flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.(The euro area consists of Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland). Spain readings are better than Germany's and France's figures.Upcoming events:Today bank holiday is in France, Germany, and Italy. It's a quiet day in the economic calendar for the euro and mild busy in the US. ISM manufacturing PMI readings are due. In 2015, the readings for the first four months were below expectations. The manufacturing PMI was 58.7 in December 2014. This has been the best reading so far for 5 months. The index fell to 51.5 in April 2015 from 58.7 in December 2014. 59.00 was the highest reading in September and November 2014. The lowest reading was 49.00 in June 2013.Technical view:The euro extend its bullish bias six days in a row against the USD. At yesterday's session, we recommended buying above 1.1130 with the targets at 1.1150, 1.1190, 1.1230, and 1.1250. The pair made a high at 1.1265. For today's session, we recommend fresh buying only above 1.1265 where strong resistance is found at 1.1260 20Wsma. The trend change level seems at 1.1310 10Dema. In case the price breaches above 1.1265, another strong resistance zone will be found between 1.1300 and 1.1310 100Dsma and 100Dema respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma/ema, the bearish views remain in play. Bulls have only 45 pips available on the upside. Further spikes will favor new sell trades with sl 1.1265 on a weekly closing basis or use sl 1.1315 and start selling on a daily closing basis. Support is seen at 1.1100, 100.00 FE, and between 1.1055-1.1030 strong support base. Today, bullish crossover has not been confirmed on the daily chart yet. 50Dsma is found at 1.0877 and 20Dsma is seen at 1.0830. A daily close above 1.1315 ignited further bullish views in the coming weeks. On the bearish front, the price closed below between 1.1050 and 1.1030; further selling trades will be added to the system. In case the price manages to close above 1.1315, further bullish trades will be available for 100-150 pips on the higher side. Bulls can aim to reach 1.1390, 1.1470 161.8 FE. At present, the chances are remote.

Trade: For today's session, small trade is available on the higher side, buying above 1.1265 with targets at 1.1300 and 1.1310.

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Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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