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    Technical analysis and trading recommendations on USDX and USD/JPY for May 04, 2015

    The USD index moved higher and probably made a double top at 94.40. The trading pattern is framed between 95.45 20Wsma and 94.40. The 100Dsma pushed the index higher. The 100FE seems at 95.70 and swing low seems at 96.17. Until the price closes below 96.17, selling on a rise is preferable this week. The weekly trend is framed between 94.40 and 96.17. The 20& 50Dsma seems at 97.40 (rounded). The daily momentum indicators favor a pullback. The USD index softened more after the FOMC meeting. The March strong tone was missing at the April meeting. The US Fed stated the labour market improved in March, but in April it was moderated. Economic growth in March was modest, but in April it was subdued. The US flash GDP in Q1 2015 was 0.2%, but in the Q4 2014 it was 2.2%. Literally the US economy is stalled. USD/JPYTechnical view: The pair paused for 2 weeks in a row and managed to close above 20Wsma. The pair has support at 119.30 or 20Wsma. This month the pair opened with a bullish bias. At Friday's session, the pair made a double top on the four-hour chart at 120.29. We recommend fresh buying only above the double top. We still recommend buying with sl 118.20 100Dsma for a couple of weeks and moving SL at 119.20. At Friday's session, we recommended selling below 118.50, but the pair made a low at 118.50 and changed the direction. The pair managed to close above 20Dsma and 100Sma, but bearish crossover is still active. The pair has the nearest parallel resistance at 120.30. Another big spikes are available above 120.30 towards 120.85 which is a trend change level. If the pair closes above 120.85, bulls can bet on a new high at 122.50. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. On the downside, the support is found at 119.90 or 50Dsma and 119.50 and 119.30.The 100Dema is found at 118.30. Intraday support is seen at 119.90, besides mild support is found at 119.50.

    Trade: fresh buying is above 120.30, positional traders move SL to 119.90.


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    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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