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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 07, 2015

EUR/USDAs we expected, yesterday's data shows the recovery of the eurozone's economies. Spain, Italy, and France enjoying their optimistic data, but the biggest economy, Germany, is struggling a bit. The ECB QE is working well on the economies. In March 2015, the ECB began purchases of government bonds worth over 1 trillion euros by September 2016. The euro's longer-term picture favors bears.Spain services PMI: April data signalled a further acceleration. Business Activity Index rose for the second month to 60.3 in April from 57.3 in March. The reading signalled a substantial monthly increase in activity, it has been the sharpest surge since November 2006. Growth of activity accelerates amid an abrupt increase in new orders since June 2000. Italy services PMI : Italy's service sector enjoyed a positive start to the second quarter. An increase in new jobs promotes business activity growth. A number of new jobs picks up to the biggest level since late 2007. Business Activity Index came in at 53.1 in April, up from 51.6 in March. This was the index's second-highest reading in over four years, the index was outpaced only in June 2014.France services PMI: France's service providers reported a rise in business activity for the third month including April. Final Markit France Services PMI came in at 51.4 (52.4 in March), hitting a 3-month low. Final Markit France Composite Output Index dropped to 3-month low at 50.6 from 51.5 in March. Germnay services PMI: April data signalled a continuation of service sector activity growth in Germany, but the rate of growth slowed since March. Final Germany Services PMI showed 54.0 in April, down from 55.4 in March (a 3-month low). Final Germany Composite Output Index was at 54.1 in April, down from 55.4 in March (a 2-month low).Eurozone PMI: Eurozone growth continues as industrial output rises across four major economies. Final Eurozone Composite Output Index is 53.9. Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index is 54.1. This was highlighted by the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posting 53.9 which little changed from 54.0 in March.
Euro retail sales: A 0.8% decrease in retail sales was noted in the euroarea in March 2015. Today's events: Germany factory orders is due. We expect negaive data this month from Germany. The factory orders report disappointed traders in March and April. Besides, US unemployment claims can be printed on the positive side.Technical view: The pair gave another strong close at yesterday's session. The weak US data pushed the USD to a 3-months low, the euro used this opportunity and recovered from the lows. The beaten-down euro has been enjoying bulls ride for 4th consecutive month. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to close above 100dsma and 100dema. We recommended risky buying above 1.1200 and safe buying above 1.1230 with the targets at 1.1270 and 1.1290 on intraday and positional 1.1390 and 1.1475. The pair made a high at 1.1370. We made good money of 170 pips. Technically, the gains add more strength against USD, a bullish crossover is at 20&50 sma. The pair managed to close above 100dsma & ema. Exactly one year ago, the pair closed below 100dsma&ema (May 13, 2014), at that point we recommended selling. If we consider the fundamental factor, the euro favours selling on a rise. The divergence between FED and ECB policies makes the pair bearish. The ECB is likely to expand QE by 2016.The downward pressure still exists in the system. This rally is a relief rally generating from the soft USD. Support is found between 1.1290 and 1.1250. Until the pair closes above 1.1250, the technical bullish view remains in play in the short term. We are waiting until the rest of our targets at 1.1390 and 1.1475 are hit. This view will be erased, in case the price closes below 1.1250. For an intraday view, we recommend fresh buying at 1.1290 with sl 1.1250 with targets at 1.1340, 1.1370 and 1.1390. The pair made a double top at 1.1370. Another strong upswing is expected above 1.1370. If Germany's factory orders appear to be disappointing and US unemployment claims impressive, we recommend selling below 1.1250 with immediate small targets at 1.1225 and 1.1200. The real panic lies below 1.1200 towards 1.1180, 1.1120, and 1.1070.
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Trade: Use a dip to buy with sl 1.1250 or buy above 1.1370.

NOTE: If the price closes below 1.1225, we can conclude the short-term target has been capped.

Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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