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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for May 12, 2015

Greece made 750 million repayment to the International Monetary Fund. Greece has to reach a reform deal with international creditors by June. Greece debt stands at 323 billion today. The country owes the eurozone 141.8 billion that is 60% of the debt. European commissioner Pierre Moscovici told reporters that the sides haven't agreed on proposals for Greek pension and labor reform. In Greek finance minister's words, terribly urgent issue is a liquidity problem in Greece. Greek exit from the eurozone is likely to influence the economy. According to the Moody's forecast, the euro area is expected to show an average annual increase of 1.5% by 2016.

Today, it's a silent day on the Euro front. At yesterday's session, the euro edged lower against USD. The pair closed below 100Dsma and 100Dema. The strong support base was found between 1.1050 and 1.1030. The long positions in the euro are slowly diminishing. The 20Dsma is found at 1.1000 and 50Dsma 1.08700. Resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1220 100Dsma and 1.1290 100Dema. To regain bulls' strength, they must close above 1.1290 rounded to 1.1300. The price has been consolidating at 1.1133 for last 18 hours. Further weakness likely remains in play consolidating at the lower levels after a big rally signals.

Intraday:Hourly resistance is seen at 1.1175 12hr high, 1.1210 50Dsma, and 1.2135 20dsma in the four-hour chart. Small bullish trade is available above 1.1175 with small targets at 1.1200, 1.1230, and may be even 1.1250. The intraday strong up move will be possible in case the price breaches 1.1250 with a target at 1.1290/1.1300. Bears are recommended to trade below 1.1130 with targets at 1.1100, 1.1070, 1.1050, and 1.1030. Close below 1.1030. We have been recommending selling below 1.1290. Yesterday, we advised selling below 1.1175 again.

Trade: Selling below 1.1130

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Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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