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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 14, 2015

    France:

    Prelim GDP q/q - in the Q1 of 2015, the French GDP showed a great increase: 0.6% after 0.0% for the previous period. Household consumption expenditure accelerated ( 0.8% after 0.1%) in first three months of 2015. Goods and services production rose by 0.7% in the Q1 after a stagnation at the end of 2014.

    CPI - Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in April 2015.

    Germany:

    GDP-The German economy continued to grow at a slightly slower pace. The Federal Statistical Office reports that the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% in the first quarter of 2015 compared with 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014.

    CPI - Consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.5% in April 2015 compared with April 2014. The inflation rate increased for the third consecutive month. However, it was at a low level again. The consumer price index in April 2015 remained unchanged compared with March 2015.

    WPI- As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade decreased by 0.9% in April 2015 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In February 2015 and in March 2015, the annual rates of change were 2.1% and 1.1%, respectively.

    EURO

    FLASH GDP q/q - Flash estimate for the first quarter of 2015 GDP is up by 0.4% in the euro area and the EU 1.0% and 1.4% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2014.

    Technical view: The euro soared higher against USD and managed to close above the previous resistance levels at yesterday's session. But the pair was unable to breach the previous high of 1.1392. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading lower against USD. The pair has made a double high at 1.1383 in the four hour chart. We expect another strong momentum above 1.1395 towards 1.1450. The German yields rose for the first time in 15 months. To retain the current strength, bulls need to close above 1.1400. Otherwise, bears can challenge towards the support zone between1.1160 20Wsma and 1.1070 20Dsma. A strong base is found between 1.1050 and 1.1030. The long-term picture favors bears. The divergence between ECB and FED favors bears too. In case of Grexit, the euro will be diminished.

    Intraday view: Intraday support is found at 1.1330 and 1.1270. Resistance is seen at the previous high of 1.1392. Safe buying is expected above 1.1392 with possible upside 1.1410 and 1.1450. It can stretch towards 1.1475. We expect this week's high to be placed between 1.1450/1.1475. On the down side, selling pressure will be built below 1.1290 towards 1.1260, 1.1220, and 1.1205.

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    To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com


    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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