Bulls have been enjoying a ride for the fifth consecutive week as well. The last week's rally was mainly led by German yields. German bunds rose faster compared to US yields. German yields rose for the first time in 15 months. Greece's Finance Ministry repaid a 750 million loan to the IMF last Monday. It was the only improvement took place in the recent days in the context of the Greek issue.
A set of major economic data is due this week. Monday is a quiet day in terms of economic data. Tuesday is a big day on the euro. German Zew economic sentiment falls on Tuesday. It has been disappointing economists thought 3 months. Zew economic sentiment has been improving for 6 consecutive months. On Thursday, series of data are expected from France and Germany. The German final GDP q/q and German Ifo business climate fall on Friday. The Greece saga has been continuing. Greece has to reach a reform deal with international creditors by June. European commissioner Pierre Moscovici told the sides haven't agreed on proposals for Greek pension and labor reform. In Greek Finance Minister's words, terribly urgent issue is a liquidity problem in Greece. Greek exit from the eurozone is likely to influence the economy.
Weekly technical analysis: bulls managed to close above 20Wsma on a second consecutive week. The nearest resistance is seen at 1.1470 161.8FE and 1.1535. In case the price closes above 1.1535, bulls might aim at 1.1660, 1.1820/1.1875, and 1.1965. In case of the latter, we can expect 1.2000. The recent trend got changed because of a steep fall from the peak and the soft US dollar. Weekly support is found at 1.1165 20Wsma. The 100Dema is seen at 1.1300 and 100Dsma is found at 1.1195. The strong support base is at 1.1050. Until the price closes above 1.1195, a bullish view remains in play. On the higher side, bulls must close above 1.1535 initially to extend their path. We expected profit booking between 1.1480 and 1.1535 last Thursday and Friday. As of now, a high of 1.1467 was made.
Intraday technical analysis: Intraday support is found at 1.1390. The selling pressure will be applied below 1.1390 towards 1.1340, 1.1325, and 1.1275. The real selling pressure is expected below 1.1280 towards 1.1200. On the higher side, 1.1480 and 1.1535 are acting as strong resistance levels. As for the given support and resistance, bears can sell below 1.1390 with intraday targets at 1.1340 and 1.1325. On Monday, bulls must close above 1.1535 or bears must close below 1.1300 to get a decisive move until the pair consolidates between 1.1535 and 1.1300. Big trade is not available for bulls. We request bulls to wait for small correction or to start buying for 1.1660 in case of a closure above 1.1535.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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