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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 15, 2015


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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to the sefe-haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 7.24% to 13.78, S&P 500 closed 0.70% lower at 2,094.11 Friday) on escalating fears that Greece could go ino default due to its debts. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the higher shorter-dated US Treasury yields (2-year rose 1 basis point to 0.726% Friday), positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.15 versus 95.09 early Friday) after stronger-than-expected preliminary UoM June consumer sentiment of 94.6 (versus forecast 91.5), higher-than-expected 0.5% on-month rise in the US May PPI (forecast 0.4%), demand from Japan's importers, and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish. Five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.90. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 122.45. The pivot point stands at 124.10. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.65 and the second target at 124.95.

Resistance levels: 124.65 124.95 125.35

Support levels: 122.90 122.45 122

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