USD/CAD has been trading downwards since 05.06 when it tested a high of 1.2561. After the pair moved down within the descending channel. On June 17, USD/CAD tested the upper trendline of the channel and it was rejected. At the same time, 200 Moving Average was also rejected.
Clearly, the pair is making lower lows and lower highs without any signs of further correction or reversal up. Currently, USD/CAD is rejecting R1 (1.2238) resistance, which is 76.4% Fibonacci level applied to a low hit on June 10 and a high hit on June 15.
Everything is pointing out on a downtrend continuation, even the RSI oscillator just crossed overbought area from above. Consider selling USD/CAD near R1 (1.2238), targeting at 161.8 Fibonacci retracement level, that is S2 (1.2103). A break above R2 could trigger a range trading, but the downtrend will remain intact.
Support: 1.2200, 1.2103
Resistance: 1.2238, 1.2261, 1.2279