Global macro overview for 14/07/2015:
The core US retail sales growth rate in June is officially the slowest one on a year-over-year basis since February 2014. Today's reading of -0,1% is lower than an expected 0,7% increase and 0,8% last month. Retail sales were weaker as well, with even worse -0,3% number versus the expected 0,2% increase and 1% month before. Even retail sales excluding auto and gas came out lower at -0,2% againts the forecast for 0,5% and 0,5% in month before. It looks like the current US economy is between the rock and a hard place as retail sales are not going anywhere near the levels seen in 2009 - 2011. Moreover, the retail sales cycle had peaked in November 2014 with 4,7% reading and since then the economy is getting worse despite the Fed's attempts to stabilize the situation.
Amid the reports, USD/JPY fell after three days of its upward rally. It has (almost) hit the 61%Fibo retracement at the level of 123.77 and currently keeps declining toward the first daily support at the level of 122.87.