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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 12, 2015


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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Currently trading at 97.204, the US dollar index fell overnight while US stocks were given a boost by surging commodity prices. Crude oil surged 2.5% to $44.96 a barrel, gold was up 0.9% to $1,104 per ounce, and copper rose 2.8% to $2.407 a pound. And the S&P 500 gained 1.3% to 2,104, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.4%, to 17,615. At the same time, the euro jumped to as high as 1.1041 on expectations that Greece and its creditors would reach a bailout agreement. Meanwhile, USD/JPY maintains its bullish bias above the key support at 124.45. The 20-period intraday moving average stays above the 50-period one, while the intraday RSI remains within the buying area between 50 and 70. The first upside target is set at 125.25 (around yesterday's high); and the second, at 125.60.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish. The MACD histogram bars are turned positive.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.50. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 123.20. The pivot point stands at 124.45. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 125 and the second target at 125.25.

Resistance levels: 125 125.25 125.60

Support levels: 123.50 123.20 123

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