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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 17, 2015

General overview for 17/08/2015 10:00 CET

After the end of the impulsive wave progression cycle, the Elliott wave count has been revised and updated. The current wave development might be considered in two scenarios: main and alternative:

- the main count indicates an uncompleted impulsive wave structure on the weekly chart: the current wave 3 purple is the temporary top only after the corrective cycle in the wave 4 purple is completed, the uptrend should resume. Please note that the deepest retrace in the wave 4 purple might go as low as the 1.2000 level without breaking any Elliott wave principles. The whole structure in the wave C green must be completed in five impulsive waves labeled in purple;

- the alternative count on the weekly chart indicates a more complex possible corrective cycle in the wave X black and uncompleted wave progression to the downside in the wave Y black. The whole structure is labeled as the wave B green, and the low for the wave B green might go as deep as the low for the wave W black - about the level of 0.9400.

Nevertheless, the current preferred count is the main one, of course, and any impulsive breakout above the level of 1.3211 confirms the view. Please note that the market is currently trading inside a very large corrective/neutral zone between the levels of 1.3211 - 1.2858. The corrective structure might evolve into a complex and time-consuming pattern as well.


1.3211 - Swing High

1.3206 - WR1

1.3156 - Intraday Resistance

1.3093 - Intraday Support

1.3079 - Weekly Pivot

1.2975 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should close the long-term buy orders now as the downward corrective cycle is due now.

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 1.3155 with SL above the level of 1.3165 and TP at the level of 1.3093.


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