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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 18, 2015

GBPJPYH4.png

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Overview

According to the attached H4 chart, theup trend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the 200 psychological level. A medium-term momentum is not too convincing with bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. We'd be cautious in the medium term topping around 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, a break of 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expect.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Rebound from 184.95 might extend. But we'd expect strong resistance from 195.86 to limit upside and bring a reversal. At this point, we're holding on to the view that consolidation pattern from 195.86 is not completed yet. A break of 190.99 will start the third leg of the consolidation and will target 184.95 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.36; (P) 194.26; (R1) 194.75;



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