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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 20, 2015

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    UUSD/JPY is under pressure. The US indices closed slightly lower on Thursday, pressured by shares in the Transportation, Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment, and Utilities sectors. The DJIA was 0.02% down at 17732.75. S&P 500 edged lower by 0.1% at 2081.24, and Nasdaq Composite remeined flat at 5073.64. The 10-year Treasury yields fell by 0.023% to 2.246%. Nymex crude oil posted a 0.5% decline to $40.54, while gold rose by 0.9% to $1,078.00/ounce. On the economic data front, the US Initial jobless claims lowered to 271K for the week ending Nov 14 compared to 276K the week before. Continuing claims fell by 2K to 2175K and remained 8% down against the reporting period in the previous year. The Philadelphia fed business outlook index rose to 1.9 this month, above the (-0.5) estimate and above the (-4.5) back in Oct. Finally, the conference board US leading index rose 0.6% in Oct, above the 0.5% estimate compared to a decrease of 0.2% last month. The dollar suffered its largest one-day percentage decline against the euro and the yen in a month due to profit-taking. The pair broke below a rising trend line, which emerged on Nov 16 and consolidated on the downside. The declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50%. As long as 123.200 holds on the upside, look for further downside move towards 122.60 and even 122.30.

    Trading recommendations:

    The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.60. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 122.30. The pivot point stands at 123.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.60 and the second target at 123.85.

    Resistance levels: 123.60 124 124.45

    Support levels: 122.60 122.30 121.60


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