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Global macro overview for 03/12/2015

Global macro overview for 03/12/2015:

The main event of the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for release at 1:45 pm GMT. The regulator is expected to announce further easing measure to boost the eurozone's economy. However, there are three scenarios for the ECB policy announcement:

1. Cut the main interest rate together with discount rate and extend timeline of the current bond-buying program (possibly increase of the amount of the program)

2. Do nothing about the current situation despite all the recent Draghi's remarks, because of the real deflation threat in the eurozone. In that case the ECB decides to wait for the Fed to raise the rates first.

3. Rhetoric change about the QE program with an increase of EUR 20 billion to monthly purchases and a possible extension in 2017 are likely. This scenario might go without a deeper negative discount rate.

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is likely to fall deeper towards the technical support at the level of 1.0462 and might even breakout below it. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.0636.


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