Global macro overview for 03/02/2016:
The ADP Employment report was released today and it was better than analysts had expected. A change in the number of newly employed people in the US was at 205K vs. the forecast of 195K, which seems to be a good result, but is still lower than the previous month reading of 267K. The ADP report is a good predictor of the NFP report that will be released on Friday: expectations for the NFP number are lower than last month, so an upside surprise is still possible. Please notice that strong numbers from the US labor market helped convince the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, but employment numbers have been lukewarm in early 2016. In conclusion, investors might expect the employment numbers to be closely monitored by the Fed, which will have to decide if the economy is ready for another rate hike in March.
Let's take a look at the technical chart of the EUR/USD pair after the ADP data release. A clear breakout above the dashed trend line in the H4 time frame might indicate that bulls are currently in control of the market. Nevertheless, there is one more important technical resistance to be violated: the area between the levels of 1.0992 and 1.1059. If the daily candlestick closes above the top of this zone, bullish trend will resume at least in the some short time.