Global macro overview for 28/01/2016:
After four rate cuts in 2015, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to hold the official cash rate at the level of 2.5% yesterday, but in the statement the RBNZ said it still can cut the rate soon due to the slower global economy growth (particularly relating to China) and dropping oil prices. The last RBNZ cut in December 2015 had set the interest rates at the level of 2.5%, which is the all-time low. Nevertheless, the RBNZ inflation expectations are targeting the level between 1-3% for this year despite the last week's data showed the annual inflation change eased to just 0.1%, the weakest in more than 15 years. To stimulate its own economy and to meet the inflation targets, the RBNZ will have to cut the rates even further this year.
From the technical point of view, the NZD/USD pair is still moving in the downtrend, however there are some indications of a possible trend change in the daily chart (daily hammer from 20th Jan). Nevertheless, to give us the first sign of real trend reversal, the price must get above the technical resistance at the level of 0.6579 and above the golden trend line as well. Without this kind of price actions, the current rally will be considered just a correction in a longer-term downtrend.