Global macro overview for 25/01/2016:
The German IFO index data has been released this morning, and the figures have disappointed the market participants. According to data, IFO Business Climate, the main component of the index, is at the level of 107.3 points, lower than the forecast of 108.6 points. Moreover, the rest of the IFO components has declined as well: IFO Expectation index is at 102.4 points vs. 104.0 expected and IFO Current Assessment index is at 112.5 points vs.112.8 points expected. Nevertheless, despite the lower than expected figures, the undelying trend of the Ifo Business Climate index is still steady and slowly increasing as it oscillates between the low of 103.0 (November 2014) and high of 109.2 (December 2015). The point is that the sentiment of the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers is positive and steady in the current economic conditions, thereafter the spending, hiring and investment in Germany and the EU should follow the same path as sentiment.
Now let us analyze the technical side of the EUR/USD pair after the data was released. The dashed blue trend line still provides the dynamic support around the level of 1.0800. Any breakout below this level should put the next support at the level of 1.0776 to test. In case of the bounce, the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.0858.