Global macro overview for 08/02.2016:
After the NFP results published last Friday, we saw the US dollar's biggest weekly decline against the US dollar index in seven years (-3%). It seems that market participants were rethinking their forecasts on the Fed policy moves. Now it seems many would rather suggest that only one or two rate hikes may be possible this year rather than four. Even New York Fed Governor Dudley acknowledged that conditions were "worse now than they were in December" when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered its first rate hike in a decade. In conclusion, it might look like the over-welcome and long-time anticipated Fed's rate hike in last December might be even the last one this year.
Let's take a look at the US dollar index technical picture. After Thursday and Friday losses, the market closed at golden trend-line support and now it is testing the resistance level of 97.18. Any failure here may lead to a further sell-off, so bulls must close the daily above this level and head higher towards 50 and 100 moving average at 98.50.