Global macro overview for 16/02/2016:
The ZEW sentiment index economic data from Germany was published just a couple of hours ago and the readings slightly beat the market consensus. The index was released at the level of 13.6 and the market expectations were 10.3 points. Nevertheless, it is still 9.2 points lower than the previous one and it deteriorated for the second consecutive time in February 2016. The main reason for discouraging report was a looming slowdown in the global economy and the uncertain consequences of falling oil prices. To conclude, we might say, that the best of the EU economy seems to be passed and another strong headwinds are here to be faced.
The technical picture of EUR/USD in the H4 time frame does not look positive at all. The pair is trading just above the golden trend line support and any breakout to below it would result in a test at the level of 1.1058. Any failure of a bullish reversal at the level of 1.1058 would mean that the local top at the level of 1.1376 is in place and the downtrend has resumed.