Global macro overview for 17/02/2016:
The release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes is scheduled for 07:00pm GMT today. As we remember, the Fed did not raise the interest rates at its first meeting in January 2016 as it remained cautious. Macroeconomic events showed very statistical changes in the financial markets: sell-off of Chinese equities and dropping oil prices heavily weigh on commodity currencies. Moreover, Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimonies last week confirmed that the US economy is growing, but it faces negative exposure to macro headwinds. In conclusion, the markets are not that keen to expect two more rate hikes in 2016 as they were in December ( after the first hike).
What is going on the SPY (SP500 EFT) index from a technical point of view then? It looks like the market is living through a crucial period. On the H4 chart, we can see a double bottom at the level of 180.96, just at the lower end of the demand zone. The market bounced higher, but it is still trading in the neutral zone, way below the technical resistance at the level of 194.89. If the market reverses in coming days and trades below the level of 180.96, then the mid-term top might be in place at the level of 213.78, and further decline should be expected.