Global macro overview for 02/03/2016:
The API crude oil inventories data was released yesterday and the numbers beat market expectations significantly. The expected number of oil barrels was at the level of 2,500K, down from 7,100K a week ago. Nevertheless, the amount of stockpiles in the US was at the level of 9,900K, much more than anticipated. In conclusion, we might still observe a never-ending story of oil oversupply in the commodity market that still increases. The figures do not allow us to suppose that the oil crisis might be ending as OPEC member and non-member countries still did not achieve any agreement on production cuts.
From the technical point of view, the oil price might get a temporary relief rally. In the H4 time frame, we might observe a bullish break-out attempt at the level of 34.32 that has failed so far. Nevertheless, the market still trades above the 21, 50, and 100 moving averages and as long as the level of 33.36 is not violated, bulls might still try again to break out above the resistance. In case of a successful breakout, the next target will be at the level of 38.13.