Global macro analysis for 03/03/2016:
The Crude Oil Inventories report (which are the actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis) was posted yesterday. Again the numbers easily beat the market expectations. The expected number of 3,400K, down from 3,502K a week ago, was beaten by the actual massive increase of 10,374K, much more than anticipated. In conclusion, we can again witness oil stockpiles grow as the supply glut persists. The question remains of how long the inventories capacity will be manageable to prevent the oil from another sell-off to even lower levels?
From the technical point of view, the oil price might get a temporary relief rally. In the H4 time frame, we might observe a bullish breakout attempt at the level of 34.32 that has failed so far. Nevertheless, the market still trades above the 21, 50, and 100 moving averages and as long as the level of 33.36 is not violated, bulls might still try again to break out above the resistance. In case of a successful breakout, the next target will be at the level of 38.13.