Global macro overview for 11/03/2016:
The crude oil inventories has again crushed the market expectations by delivering better-than-anticipating data again. Market participants had expected an increase of 3500 K barrels after the massive upbeat seen last week (10374k barrels), but the released number was at the level of 3880 K barrels. Nevertheless, investors seem to be more interested in the news that the OPEC and other oil producers were planning to meet in Moscow on March 20 to discuss prospects for production capping. We will see if this meeting turns out to be a game-changer for oversupplied oil market. In conclusion, oil prices have slightly risen by 25% since mid-February, but with a huge oversupply in the commodity market and no signs of demand increasing, prices could reverse and head towards the symbolic level of $30 again.
Let's now take a look at the technical picture of the crude oil in the H4 time frame. Crude trades above the golden trend line and every touch with 21 EMA results in another spike up. Currently, bulls have broken above the important resistance at the level of 38.39 and they are in full control over the market. Only a sustained break out below the technical support at the level of 36.13 would change the current bullish picture.