Global macro overview for 04/05/2016:
All financial markets' participants will be closely watching the ADP non-farm employment figures that will be released today as this is a good proxy of the NFP data that is scheduled for release this Friday. Investors expect another advance in the indicator to the level of 205K jobs, that is 5,000 more than a month before. As we remember, the last NFP number was also better than expected and it looks like the markets want to continue this uptrend until the next significant down revision. In conclusion, if the ADP expectations hold up, the labor market will deliver encouraging news at the beginning of the second quarter.
Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture in the daily time frame. After the recent sell-off bulls managed to bounce slightly, but it seems to me as a more corrective reaction to test the recently broken support (now resistance) at the level of 107.67. Only if this level is clearly violated, bulls might temporary regain the control over this market as the growing positive divergence is supporting the view. Please notice, that the market trades very close to the important daily technical support at the level of 105.15. Any break out lower is a strong bearish signal.