Global macro overview for 10/05/2016:
The Halifax House Price Index data, which monitors the prices of the British houses were released yesterday and they disappointed investors. After the introduction of a new tax on the purchase of rental properties, the prices declined -0.8% m/m (9.2% 3m/y), whereas they were expected to drop to 0.1% m/m (9.6% 3m/y) in March from 2.2% m/m (10.1% 3m/y) in February. The new tax rules are as follows: finance minister George Osborne announced in November 2015 that landlords acquiring buy-to-let properties, as well as people buying second homes, would pay a new 3% surcharge from April 1st 2016, in an attempt to support first-time buyers, who have struggled to cope with the precipitous pace of house price growth. This of course resulted in a record numbers of houses bought in March 2015 in order to avoid paying the new tax. In conclusion, the price of the UK properties might start to fall lower and even speed up if Britons vote to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in 4h time frame. Bears have managed to retrace to 50%Fibo from the swing high at the level of 1.4770 and they stopped at this level for now. Nevertheless, the 61%Fibo and next important technical support are now at the very same level of 1.4300 and it seems this might be the next target for bears if the drop gets extended. On the other hand, bulls will fight tough at the technical resistance at the level of 1.3415 and 1.4545 if they want to regain control.