Global macro overview for 10.06/2016:
The US job market data surprised the market participants again as unemployment claims posted figures that are better than expected. According to the US Labor Department, initial unemployment claims fell to the level of 264k which is 5,000 less than the anticipated figure of 269K for the last week. Moreover, continuing claims declined as well to the level of 2095K from 2172K a week ago. This is an almost 16-year low in claims and it is clearly pointing to the strengthening of the US labor market despite poor NFP data revealed last Friday. In conclusion, despite the fact that in a separate report the US Labor Department revealed that May was the worst month for hiring in almost six years, an upward revision of last NFP number is highly anticipated next month, so the current job market situation might get even better. The Fed's policymakers will be closely watching next NFP data.
Let's now take a look at the US dollar Index technical picture in the 4H time frame. After a possible higher high was made at the level of 95.98, the market declined just below the 50 periods moving average and now bulls are trying to regain the control over this market. The bounce from the 61% Fibo at the level of 93.42 looks quite strong for now, but still bulls must rally higher in order to break out above the level of 95.21 and then 95.98.