Global macro overview for 13/06/2016:
The most anticipated fundamental macro event of the week is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday at 6:00 pm GMT. The meeting will end with the release of an interest rate decision, the statement, and economic projections. Chairperson Janet Yellen will deliver a prepared statement and address questions from journalists. The US central bank is not expected to increase interest rates at this meeting, mainly due to the fact that employment might be losing steam after a disappointing US NFP report published earlier this month. In conclusion, any rate hike this week will be a truly shocking event for the markets as the CME Group FedWatch tool is indicating an implied probability of this event at 1.8%.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the 4H time frame at the beginning of the trading week. The market has retraced 61% of the previous down move, and it was capped at the level of 1.1416. This level has been labeled as a possible lower high in the sequence, and now the bears must push the price even below the level of 1.1096 in order to secure control over this market.