Global macro overview for 15/06/2016:
The main event of the week, the FOMC interest rate decision, economic projections, and the press conference are scheduled for 06:00 pm GMT today. Global investors do not expect any change in interest rates, and this attitude is being supported by the CME FedWatch tool - the current implied probability of a rate hike is 1.9%, so it is very unlikely. The main reason for the Fed to postpone an interest rate hike is mixed economic data and, in particular, the weaker-than-expected NFP that only added 38,000 jobs last month. In conclusion, no change is expected, and investors' attention will be focused on the press conference and Chairperson Jannet Yellen's answers to questions regarding inflation, employment, and GDP.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the daily time frame. The price has managed to bounce from important support at the level of 93.44, and now the bulls are trying to break out above another technical resistance at the level of 94.93. To confirm the bullish strength, the price would have to break out even higher above the technical resistance at the level of 95.98 and head towards 200 DMA at the level of 96.57. Otherwise the bears will take control over the market and will try to test/break the recent support at the level of 93.44.