Global macro overview for 22/06/2016:
The oil investors will watch for weekly U.S. crude inventory data releases by American Petroleum Institute at 08:30pm GMT. Market participants are expecting another draw in the stockpiles down to the level of -1500k from -933k a week ago. The reason for this might be investors' worries about the possibility of global crude supplies tightening due to the economic crisis in Venezuela. According to OPEC data, the output from Venezuela, one of the largest crude oil producers and exporters, which sits atop the world's biggest oil reserves, was 2.37 million barrels per day in May, down 5 percent from April and 11 percent from last year's average. In conclusion, the ongoing crisis in Venezuela and OPEC's inability to find an agreement regarding the output levels will drain the stockpiles even more and might increase the price of crude oil even further.
Let's now take a look at the crude oil technical picture in the 4H time frame. The sequence of higher high that was supporting the uptrend is now violated as the recent low at the level of 45.81 is a clear lower low. Nevertheless, bulls have managed to break out above the 100 and 200 moving average and even gapped up to the level of next technical resistance at the level of 50.19, showing the strength of the bull camp. For now only another higher high above the level of 51.65 might prove that bulls are still in control over this market, otherwise, the test of the recent lower low will come soon.