In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.
In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.
In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the current bullish pullback.
That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the previous monthly candlestick of May).
In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.
On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis.
In December 2015, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart.
On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range. Bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue.
Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.
On May 5, the 1.1600 level corresponded to the backside of the broken uptrend line depicted on the chart where the shooting-star daily candlestick appeared, indicating significant bearish rejection.
Later on May 18, daily persistence below the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1200 was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels. However, a lack of bearish pressure was manifested on June 1.
Hence, the recent bullish closure above 1.1200 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1400 where evident signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were previously suggested. That's why, temporary bearish breakdown of 1.1200 took place on June 16
However, evident bullish rejection around 1.1130 (depicted uptrend line) brought the EUR/USD pair above 1.1200 again.
Any bullish pullback towards the zone of 1.1400 should be watched for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.
On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.1220 (recent key level) is needed to maintain enough bearish momentum towards 1.1000.