Global macro overview for 04/07/2016:
The main reason for the quiet start of the week is the Independence Day celebration in the USA, but the rest of the week looks anything but dull. The main story is, of course, the Brexit consequences and investors should now take the wait-and-see approach towards the future UK relationships with EU. The initial reaction from the last week was a panic selling, but now the markets seem to be confused in which way to turn. The political situation does not help at all as the public still do not know who will lead the British nations through this particular uncertain time. The UK won't be the only focus for investors this week though with a number of key pieces of economic data being released, there is none more important than Friday's US jobs report. The most important data, in my opinion, is listed below (all times GMT):
Monday 08:30am - UK Construction PMI
Tuesday 04:30am - RBA Rate Decision
Wednesday 06:00pm - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday 12:30pm - Unemployment Claims
Friday 12:30pm - NFP Payroll
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. The market is now in the corrective cycle and it trades between two important levels: technical resistance is at the level of 1.1180 and technical support is at the level of 1.0970. The bigger time frame cycles indicate, however, that bears might regain the control over this market anytime soon. Any lower high made below the level of 1.1428 supports this view.