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    IronFX Essential Intraday Comment | 09/07/2015

    • The dollar was higher against almost all of its G10 peers during the European morning Thursday, while it was stable vs the commodity currencies CAD, AUD and NZD. The halt in the decline of the commodity prices and the stabilization of the Chinese stock market helped to keep these rates from further depreciation.

    • In a relatively light European morning, the main event was the Swedish PES unemployment rate for June. The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% from 3.7% in May, which could show the direction of the official unemployment rate to be released next week. Following the unexpected rate cut early this month by the Swedish central bank, USD/SEK has consolidated around 8.5000. Given the possibility for the Bank to act even in between the scheduled meetings, I would expect SEK to remain under selling pressure in the short-term. On the medium-term however, I would expect the relatively high Swedish bond yields to keep the currency supported.

    • USD/SEK traded slightly higher during the European morning Thursday, after it hit support marginally below the 8.4300 (S1) support line. Bearing in mind that the rate is trading above the medium-term downtrend line taken from the peak of the 13th of April, and above the short-term uptrend line drawn from the low of the 18th of June, I would see a positive near-term outlook. As a result I would expect the next wave to be positive, perhaps for another test at the 8.5650 (R1) resistance hurdle. A break above that obstacle would confirm a forthcoming higher high on the 4-hour chart and perhaps open the way for the next resistance at 8.6370 (R2). Our short-term oscillators corroborate my view that USD/SEK is possible to trade higher. The RSI rebounded from near its 50 line, while the MACD, already positive, shows signs of bottoming.

    • Support: 8.4300 (S1), 8.3465 (S2), 8.2600 (S3)

    • Resistance: 8.5700 (R1), 8.6370 (R2), 8.6745 (R3)

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