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    IronFX Essential Intraday Comment | 29/07/2015

    • The dollar traded higher or unchanged against its G10 peers during the European morning Wednesday as investors stayed focused on the outcome of the Fed’s two day policy meeting. It was higher against SEK, NZD, EUR, JPY and AUD, in that order, while it was virtually unchanged against CHF, CAD and GBP. The greenback was lower only against NOK.

    • The Norwegian krone gained after the country’s AKU unemployment rate for May rose 10 bps to 4.3%, in line with expectations, easing concerns about further rate cuts by Norway’s central bank. On top of that, a minor advance in oil prices also kept NOK supported. Tomorrow’s release of retail sales for June and the official unemployment rate for July on Friday will shed more light on the country’s fundamentals and perhaps help investors to adjust their expectations for further action by the Bank at its September meeting. If the data come in strong, NOK could gain further.

    USD/NOK has been trading in a consolidative mode between 8.1300 (S1) and 8.2200 (R1) since the 23rd of the month. It is also trading below the uptrend line taken from the low of the 18th of June and below the short-term downtrend line drawn from the peak of the 21st of July. Having that in mind, and that our short-term oscillators detect negative momentum, I would expect the rate to trade lower. A clear break below 8.1300 (S1) could bring into the game the 8.0900 (S2) area. A break below the latter zone is the move that could carry larger bearish extensions, perhaps towards the psychological territory of 8.0000 (S3). Our daily oscillators also support my view that further downside is on the cards, at least in the short run. The 14-day RSI has turned down and could be headed towards its 50 line, while the daily MACD has topped and fallen below its trigger line. Nonetheless, I still see a major uptrend on the longer-term -- daily and weekly – charts, so I would treat the short-term downturn as a corrective phase in the longer-term uptrend.

    • Support: 8.1300 (S1), 8.0900 (S2), 8.0000 (S3)

    • Resistance: 8.2200 (R1), 8.2700 (R2), 8.4000 (R3)


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