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    IronFX Intraday Comment | USD/SEK | 05/10/2015

    • The dollar traded lower against most of its G10 peers during the European morning Monday, ranging from -0.22% against CAD to -0.60% vs NZD. The greenback was higher only against GBP, while it remained virtually unchanged vs JPY and CHF.

    • The Swedish krona gained after the Sweden’s industrial production rose 4.7% mom in August, a turnaround from -4.0% mom previously. The figure beat estimates of 1.5% mom. Although SEK may continue strengthening in the near term following the strong data, the fact that the country is still in deflation and the central bank said at its last meeting that it is willing to act again if necessary, I would treat any short-term strength as a correction of the krona’s longer-term downtrend.

    • The British pound was the only currency to suffer against the dollar following the unexpected decline in the UK service-sector PMI for September. Having in mind the better-than-expected construction and manufacturing PMIs released last week, the market was betting for a positive surprise in the service-sector PMI as well. Nevertheless, the soft reading pushed GBP/USD lower for another test of 1.5170 level. I would expect another attempt to break below that line to open the way for another test near the 1.5130 zone.

    • USD/SEK traded lower during the European morning Monday after it hit resistance at 8.3700 (R1). Since the rate is trading below the downtrend line taken from the peak of the 28th of September, I would consider the short-term bias to be negative. Therefore, I would expect the rate to continue lower and challenge again Friday’s low at 8.2700 (S1). A clear break below that line is likely to extend the negative move towards the next support at 8.2350 (S2). Our short-term momentum studies detect bearish momentum and corroborate my view. The RSI hit its 50 line and turned down, while the MACD stands below both its zero and trigger lines, pointing down as well. As for the broader trend, USD/SEK is still trading above the long-term uptrend line drawn from the low of the 19th of March 2014. However, since the 10th of April the rate is moving in a non-trending mode and as a result, I would hold a neutral stance for now as far as the overall outlook is concerned.

    • Support: 8.2700 (S1), 8.2350 (S2), 8.2000 (S3)

    • Resistance: 8.3700 (R1), 8.4100 (R2), 8.4775 (R3)

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