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    IronFX Intraday Comment | USD/SEK | 30/11/2015

    • The dollar traded mixed against its G10 peers during the European morning Monday. It was lower against SEK, AUD and NZD, in that order, while it was higher against JPY and GBP. The greenback was virtually unchanged against EUR, CHF, NOK and CAD.

    • In Germany, the regional CPI rates for November generally rose. These figures indicate that the national inflation rate, due out later in the afternoon, is likely to be higher as well. This also increases the possibility that on Wednesday, Eurozone’s flash CPI is likely to accelerate. Although the improvement in the data could support the euro temporarily, given the prospect for further easing from the ECB on Thursday and having in mind the strong expectations for the US Fed to hike rates, we could treat any rebounds in EUR/USD as providing renewed selling opportunities.

    • Sweden’s economy slowed less than expected in Q3, while the annual rate rose beyond market consensus. The Swedish krona gained following the news as strong consumer spending helped by an improvement in exports gave signs that the Swedish economy is gaining momentum again. Even though for the moment the Riksbank seems content to keep rates unchanged at its mid-December meeting, much will depend from the outcome of the ECB meeting later this week. If the ECB does act, the Riksbank could follow suit to ease further in order to prevent the krona from strengthening too much. As such, we maintain our SEK-bearish view.

    • USD/SEK traded lower during the European morning Friday, breaking below the support (now turned into resistance) of 8.7200 (R1). The rate now looks to be headed towards the short-term upside support line taken from the low of the 12th of November, where a clear dip is likely to bring into the game the 8.6600 (S1) support zone. A break below the latter hurdle is likely to carry more bearish extensions and perhaps pave the way for the next obstacle of 8.6000 (S2). Both our short-term oscillators have turned down and support that further declines could be on the cards, at least in the short run. The RSI fell below its 50 line, while the MACD, although positive, has topped and fallen below its trigger line. Switching to the daily chart, I see that the rate oscillates within a sideways range since the last days of January, between the support area of 8.1000 and the resistance zone of 8.8300. Therefore, although, I would expect some short-term declines, I would consider the overall picture of the pair to be neutral.

    • Support: 8.6600 (S1), 8.6000 (S2), 8.5700 (S3)

    • Resistance: 8.7200 (R1), 8.7600 (R2), 8.8000 (R3)


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