Technical data of the currency pair:
Previous closing: 0.6624;
Daily range: 0.6614-0.6676;
52- week range: 0.6233-0.7752;
Annual revenue: -11.01%;
Change in % for the previous day: -1.25;
- Since the beginning of February 2016 the currency has been traded in the range of 0.6580-0.6730. NZD hardly reacted on the US macro-economic data released last week.
- Last Friday, the currency weakened versus the USD after the release of the US positive statistics. Retail trade in the USA rose by 0.2%, which was above the forecast.
- China is important economic partner of New Zealand. Huge share of the country’s export is accounted for this region, At the moment China faces serious economic problems: outflow of capital from the country, decline in stock market, slowdown in economic growth.
- NZD is a commodity currency. New Zealand is export-dependant country, which sells commodities in the foreign markets. Further weakening in NZD will be caused by decline in price of the commodities over the last year.
- “Commitments of Traders” shows ambiguous picture. Large speculators go not have a common opinion about the New Zealand dollar. Long positions have increased by 2035 contracts. Также short positions have grown by 2575 contracts.
- Further decline in the NZD will be caused by the fall in the commodity markets, Chinese economic problems and positive US statistics. According to “СОТ” speculators do not come to common opinion about NZD.
- Therefore, in the near future, the NZD will fall against the USD. We recommend to open short positions.
Trading tips for the currency pair NZD/USD
Medium-term trading: at the moment, the currency is traded between the local support and resistance levels: 0.6580 – 0.6730. After breaking down and testing of support level 0.6580 and in case of respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action), we recommend to open short positions. Risk per trade is less than 2% of capital. . Stop-order can be placed slightly above the signal line. Take profit should be placed in parts at the levels 0.6500, 0.6450 and 0.6380 with the use of trailing stop.
Short-term trading: the currency is traded between the local support and resistance levels 0.6640 – 0.6680. We recommend to enter the market after breakdown and testing of these levels. The positions can be opened near the signal line and close to support/resistance levels. Risk per trade is less than 1.5% of capital. Stop-order can be placed slightly above/below the signal line. Take profit should be placed in parts at the levels of 50%, 30% and 20%.