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    AUD/USD on 03.03.2016

    Amid the rising prices of oil, gas and commodities, including iron ore, the pair AUD/USD went up on Thursday at the Asian trading session. Upward correction in the pair has continued since mid January. This week the pair has been also rising due to positive Australian data. On Tuesday RBA left interest rate unchanged at the record low of 2.0%, which is maintained since May 2015. Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens said that risks in the labor market are moderate and low inflation rate enables to continue easing monetary policy, which is close to the target level.

    Australian news is positive lately. It became known that GDP in Q4 2015 rose by 3.0% against the forecast of 2.6% and 2.7% in the previous quarter, which reduces chances of recession in Australia.

    Today, the Australian Statistical Department released information that foreign trade deficit in January fell below expectations (-2.937 billion AUD against the forecast of -3.100 billion and -3.524 billion in December). Exports rose by 1.0% in January, while imports fell by 1.0%.

    If prices of oil, gas and iron ore, as well as the volume of exports of these goods continue to rise, foreign trade deficit in Australia will continue to drop due to the rise in exports proceeds. This fact gives good chance of the rise in the pair AUD/USD.

    However, if RBA does not follow the example showed by the other central banks in the world in terms of softening monetary policy, the Australian dollar will continue to rise, which will impedes the process of redirection of the economy after the completion boom in the mining industry which lasted in the past 10 years.

    US news today will be released from 15:30 to 17:30 (GMT 2) and will include business activity index in the service sector and composite US index, volume of orders for industrial goods in January, which evaluates the state of the manufacturing sector.

    If business activity index and the data on industrial orders turn out to be better than the forecast, the USD will rise against major counterparts.

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