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    XAU/USD: the price has reached the highs of this year again on 04.03.2016

    Due to negative US statistics released yesterday, the price of gold has reached the highs of 2016 at the level of 1268.00 USD per ounce. Since the beginning of this year the price has been increased by 18%.

    Since the beginning of this week gold has been growing too despite the rise of the American stock indices and positive US economic statistics since last Friday.

    However, yesterday’s sharp rise took place amid the news that business activity indices in the service sector and composite index in February were below the previous values. Business activity index in the service sector PMI from Markit Economics fell below 50, amounting to 49.7 against the forecast of 49.8).

    The decline in indices can indicate reduction of consumer expenditures, which accounts for 2/3 of the US GDP.

    At the closing of COMEX trades April futures for gold rose to 1.3% up to 1258.20 USD per ounce. Index WSJ fell almost by 0.5% in the second part of the American session.

    Therefore, yesterday gold was supported by negative economic data and the decline in the USD versus major currencies due to closing of the long positions prior to the release of Non-Farm PayRolls today.

    Today, special attention of the traders will be focused on the US news at 15:30 (GMT 2) when the number of new jobs outside agricultural sector (Non-Farm PayRolls) will become known. It is the key indicator showing the state of the American economy. The index might help to shed light on the probability of the interest rate increase in the USA.

    If NFPR will be above the forecast (190 000 new jobs) probability of the increase in the interest rate will increase by 10-15%. Positive index will increase demand for the risky assets and rise confidence in the good state of the American economy. This fact can cause decline in the price of gold, as the costs of borrowing for the purchase and storage of gold will increase.


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