Following yesterday’s unexpected decision of RBNZ to reduce interest rate in New Zealand, the pair AUD/NZD sharply went up. Since the opening of the trading day the pair has grown by over 220 points. On the weekly chart the pair closely approached the key resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 and Fibonacci 38.2%).
Starting from 2022 the pair AUD/NZD has been systematically declining. The last wave of decline started in November 2011 at the level of 1.3220, and stopped in April 2015 at the level of 1.0050. At the moment the correction of decline is 38%.
On the daily chart Stochastic is in the overbought zone, on the four-hour chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic are reversing towards short positions.
It is possible that the price will go down to support level of 1.1085 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart). If the decline continues and the price consolidates below support level of 1.0800 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, ЕМА50 on the daily chart and Fibonacci 23.6%), the pair can drop to 1.0535 and 1.0445.
Otherwise, the price can consolidate above the level of 1.1260 and go up to 1.1635 (Fibonacci 50%).
Further dynamics will depend on the macro-economic data of New Zealand and Australia and monetary policy decisions of RBA and RBNZ.
Support levels: 1.1085, 1.0800, 1.053 and 1.0445.
Resistance levels: 1.1260 and 1.1635.
Sell Stop: 1.1180. Stop-Loss: 1.1220. Take-Profit: 1.1100, 1.1085, 1.1000 and 1.0800.
Buy Stop: 1.1230. Stop-Loss: 1.1190. Take-Profit: 1.1260, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1500 and 1.1600.