It is obvious that a meeting of the US Fed on 15-16 March will be in the center of attention. The decisions adopted at the meeting will affect the prices of the USD, commodities and precious metals in the short terms.
From the technical point of view the pair is near resistance level of 1258.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). On the daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic are reversing towards the short positions. Breakdown of support levels 1238.00 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), will bring the pair XAU/USD back to the downward channel on the weekly chart with the bottom limit below the level of 1030.00.
The scenario of the rise in price of gold will be possible if the US Fed does not raise interest rate, but highlights growing risks to the global economy. In such case, the price will go up to 1300.00 highs of 2015), 1323.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 1385.00 (highs of 2014) and 1435.00 (highs of 2013).
Support levels: 1238.00, 1218.00, 1200.0, 1150.00, 1061.00 and 1048.00.
Resistance levels: 1258.00, 1300.00, 1323.00, 1385.00 and 1435.00.
Sell Stop: 1240.00. Stop-Loss: 1260.00. Targets: 1238.00, 1218.00, 1200.0, 1150.00, 1061.00 and 1048.00.
Buy Stop: 1270.00. Stop-Loss: 1250.00. Targets: 1300.00, 1323.00, 1385.00 and 1435.00.