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    AUD/USD: eventful week on 14.03.2016

    At the last meeting on 1 March, RBA left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.0%. The latest news on the Australian economy is all positive. It became known that GDP for Q4 2015 rose by 3.0%, which was above the forecast of 2.6%. In the quarter before that GDP rose by 2.7%. Growing GDP of the country indicates stabile state of the economy and reduces concerns of possible recession.

    In January unemployment rate rose by 6% against 5.8% a month earlier, which was a negative news. It is expected that growing unemployment will prevent the rise in salaries of the hired workers, which in its turn will negatively affect the rise of domestic consumption and retail sales. However, the head of the bank Mr Glenn Stevens believes that the risks in the labour market are moderate and inflation is close to the target level.

    It also became known that deficit of the foreign trade balance in the country fell in January to-2.937 billion AUD against the forecast of -3.100 billion AUD and -3.524 billion AUD in December. Exports rose by 1.0%.

    However, prospects of the global economy are not improving. Volumes of Chinese imports from Australia are declining; the price of the commodities remains low, due to slowdown of economic growth of the largest trading partner of Australia.

    Such situation arises worries of the executives of the Central Bank. High exchange rate of the national currency is bag for the Australian exporters and impedes the recovery of the Australian economy.

    If the meeting of the US Fed on 15-15 March the interest rate will not be raised, the pair can go further up.

    Continuing rise in the AUD can force management of RBA to lower the interest rate.

    The next meeting of RBA will be held on 5 April.

    The data of this week will include: the meeting of the US Fed, interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan (15 March at 05:00 GMT 2) and Minutes of the meeting of RBA on 15 March at 02:30 (GMT 2).

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