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    Analytical review of the currency pair AUD/USD on 15.03.2016

    AUD/USD

    Technical data of the currency pair:

    Previous closing: 0.7515;
    Daily range: 0,7464-0,7528;
    Opening: 0.7515;
    52- week range: 0.6824-0.8168;
    Annual revenue: -1.90%;
    Change in % for the previous day: -0.61.


    Analytical review:

    • Since the beginning of the month the AUD has significantly strengthened against the USD (over 450 points), reaching strong resistance level of 0.7585. During yesterday’s session the AUD has corrected by 0.61%.
    • China is an important strategic partner of Australia. Last week, Chinese statistics was negative, showing that exports in February fell by 25.4%, which exceeded analysts’ forecast of 12.5%.
    • Consumer confidence index in Australia fell by 2% to 2.2%, as per Westpac. The number of mortgage loans fell by 3.9%, which was more than expected by analysts (2.3%).
    • The “Commitments of Traders” shows significant increase of short positions: 21642 contracts up to 66473.
    • Some important American statistics will become known this week, which can affect exchange rate of the pair. On Wednesday 16 March US fed will adopt interest rate decision.

    Summary:

    • Economic problems in China, ambigouos Austraian statistics, slowdown of the economic growth pace in the world, and increased volatility in the market put pressure on the currency pair. According to “COT”, large investors have increased the number of short positions.
    • In the near future the AUD will weaken against the USD. We recommend to open short positions.

    Trading tips for the currency pair AUD/USD

    Long-term trading: prior to the announcement of the interest rate decision by the US Fed on Wednesday, 16 march, the AUD is unlikely to change movement direction. At the moment we recommend to refrain from opening long-term transactions on the pair AUD/USD. We recommend to enter the market after the release of the data on Wednesday and after retesting the key support and resistance levels and in case of respective confirmation (for example, a pattern Price Action).


    Medium-term trading: the moment the currency has broken down and consolidated the local support level of 0.7525. In case of maintenance of the “mirrored” resistance level of 0.7525 and respective confirmation (such as pattern Price Action), we recommend to open short positions. Risk per trade is not more than 2% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 0.7420, 0.7350 and 0.7270 with the use of trailing stop.



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