Since July 2014, the pair NZD/USD has been in the downtrend. In August 2015 the pair managed to correct from the lows of August 2015 (at the level of 0.6260) to the level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6%).
From the beginning of 2016 the pair NZD/USD remains in the range of 0.6410 and 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6% and ЕМА50 on the weekly chart).
Last week, when RBNZ suddenly lowered interest rate in New Zealand, the pair NZD/USD sharply went down. This week, the pair NZD/USD is also under pressure. On the 4-hour and monthly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic show the decline in the pair.
The price is below the key levels of 0.6770 (ЕМА200), 0.6685 (ЕМА144) and 0.6650 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Since the opening of the trading day today in advance of the US Fed decision, the pair is traded in the narrow range at the level of 0.6600, which is crossed by the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart.
In case of positive outcome of 2-day meeting of the US Fed and positive comments of Janet Yellen today at 20:30 (GMT 2), the USD will receive support and will go up. The pair NZD/USD will go down to the nearest support level of 0.6410.
A scenario of the rise in the pair can be possible if the price breaks down resistance levels of 0.6650, 0.6685 and 0.6770 and if Mrs. Yellen indicates in the speech that monetary tightening policy will be postponed.
In such case the pair NZD/USD can rise to 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 0.7240 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 0.7400 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6585, 0.6525, 0.6490, 0.6410, 0.6370, 0.6300 and 0.6260.
Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6685, 0.6770 and 0.6860.
Sell Stop: 0.6570. Stop-Loss: 0.6620. Take-Profit: 0.6525, 0.6490, 0.6410, 0.6370, 0.6300 and 0.6260.
Buy Stop: 0.6640. Stop-Loss: 0.6590. Take-Profit: 0.6685, 0.6700, 0.6770, 0.6860, 0.6900 and 0.7240.