Since the beginning of the trading week the price of crude oil Brent has been in the narrow channel at resistance level of 41.50 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). Trading volume is low. The main fundamental drivers today are as follows:
- US Fed interest rate decision at the meeting in March (has been incorporated into prices).
- The data on oil and oil products reserves for the last week (will be known today at 16:30 GMT 2).
- Up-coming meeting in Qatar between OPEC and other large oil producing countries. (17 April).
In the absence of other fundamental factors the price of crude oil Brent will remain at the level of 41.50 until 17 April. On the daily and 4-hour chart the indicator OsMA is near the zero line, which indicates a flat. On the daily chart Stochastic is leaving overbought zone and reversing towards the short positions.
However, the price will remain in the ascending channel on the daily chart. The rise will be continued if the price breaks down the level of 41.50, 42.30 (lows of August 2015) and reaches resistance level of 44.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). As an alternative scenario the price can return to support level of 38.40 (highs of January and beginning of the decline in price in 2016) and 36.00 (low limit of the ascending channel.
Further dynamics of oil prices will depend on political and economic situation in the world and the outcome of the meeting in Qatar in April.
If a collective agreement to freeze oil production is not reached again, the oversupply of oil in the world will become the main factor preventing the rise in oil prices.
Support levels: 41.00, 40.85, 40.00, 39.00, 38.40, 36.00, 35.25 and 35.00.
Resistance levels: 41.50, 42.30 and 44.00.
Buy Stop: 42.40. Stop-Loss: 41.10. Take-Profit: 44.00.
Sell Stop: 40.70. Stop-Loss: 42.10. Take-Profit: 39.10, 38.50, 36.00, 35.25 and 35.00.