Weekly data of the US Department of Energy, released yesterday showed that oil reserves in the USA has grown again, which caused volatility in the oil prices of crude oil Brent in the range of 1.5 USD per barrel.
Presently the price has grown from today’s lows to 40.0 USD per barrel, due to the decline in the USD.
However, it is unlikely that the price go above resistance level of 40.05, which is crossed by the moving average lines with the periods 144 and 200 on the hourly chart and ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart.
Meanwhile the price is below the level of 41.50 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and pressure on the price will continue.
On the daily chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions. On the weekly chart the indicators are also reversing towards the short positions and the price is near the upper limit of the descending channel.
The main news of this week is the US labor market data for March. If the forecast ( 205 000) proves to be correct, the USD will go up, while oil prices will drop.
As an alternative scenario the pair can break down resistance level of 41.50 and go up to 44.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). However, in the medium-term short positions are preferable.
Support levels: 39.10, 38.40, 36.00 and 35.25.
Resistance levels: 41.50, 42.30 and 44.00.
Sell Stop: 39.30. Stop-Loss: 40.10. Take-Profit: 38.40, 36.00, 35.25 and 35.00.
Buy Stop: 40.70. Stop-Loss: 39.80. Take-Profit: 41.50, 42.30 and 44.00.