Review and analysis
Since July 2014 the pair AUD/USD has dropped by almost 2600 points from the level of 0.9430.
Since this January the pair has undergone upward correction in the ascending channel on the daily chart, increasing by 14% up to 0.7820. This level was reached in the second half of April. Fibonacci level of 38.2% crosses the level of 0.7820. In the last two weeks the pair has been declining. The decline was caused by the decision of the Bank of Australia to lower interest rate. However, this morning the Australian currency was supported by positive data on the trade balance in the country for March. The price of AUD/USD pulled back from support level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6%). The lines ЕМА200 on the daily chart and ЕМА50 on the weekly chart are both very close to the level of 0.7445.
In order to breakout this level the pair AUD/USD will need support from strong fundamental data. On Friday, after the release of RBA’s monetary policy comments (02:30 GMT 2) and the data on new jobs outside agricultural sector in the USA (14:30), the pair may pullback from the level of 0.7445 (if the data is positive).
Consolidation of the price below the level of 0.7445 may bring downside risks for the pair AUD/USD. Breakout below the levels of 0.7365 and 0.7330 will direct the pair to support level of 0.7140 in the downtrend.
If current rise in the pair continues after the pullback from the level of 0.7445, the pair will move in the ascending channel on the daily chart with the upper limit near the levels of the level of 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 0.7900 (highs of February and March 2015)
Although on the daily and weekly chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions, the indicators on 4-hour chart are reversing towards the long positions.
Consolidation of the price above the level of 0.7545 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 0.7600 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) will bring the pair back to the recent highs at the level of 0.7820 in the upward channel. If this level is broken down, the pair may go to 1.7900, 0.8130 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci 50%).
Support levels: 0.7445, 0.7365, 0.7330 and 0.7300.
Resistance levels: 0.7500, 0.7545, 0.7600, 0.7680, 0.7720 and 0.7820.
Sell Stop: 0.7440. Stop-Loss: 0.7490. Take-Profit: 0.7365, 0.7330, 0.7300 and 0.7140.
Buy Stop: 0.7520. Stop-Loss: 0.7470. Take-Profit: 0.7545, 0.7600, 0.7720, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000 and 0.8130.
Indicators are reversing towards sell positions
Pullback from the 0.7445