Review and dynamics
By the end of trades last Friday, June futures for gold at COMEX rose to the level of 1294.00 USD per ounce, increasing by 1.7%. Spot-price was at the level of 1287.00, increasing by 10 USD per ounce.
Since the beginning of this year the price of gold has increased by almost 24%, from the level of 1048.00 USD per ounce due to uncertainty in the global financial market. The rise in gold price since the beginning of this year has been the highest in the last 30 years.
Since the opening of the trading day this Monday, the USD has been growing in the market, including the pair XAU/USD.
At the beginning of April the price has rebounded from support level of поддержки 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the wave of decline since October 2012) and continues to move in the ascending channel on the weekly chart with the upper limit at the level of 1323.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%). The price is still above resistance level of 1257.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
On the daily and 4-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals to sell. In the price breaks out support level of 1275.00 (ЕМА50 and the lower limit of the ascending channel on 4-hour chart), the pair will go to the level of 1257.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Medium-term short positions in the pair can be opened only after consolidation of the price below support level of 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%)
Consolidation in price below the level of 1185.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) will bring the pair back to the downtrend.
As an alternative scenario the pair can resume the rise in the ascending channel on the weekly chart with the upper limit and the target of the rise in the pair at the level of 1323.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%).
Support levels: 1280.00, 1275.00, 1257.00, 1238.00, 1218.00 and 1185.00.
Resistance levels: 1300.00 and 1323.00.
Buy Stop: 1290.00. Stop-Loss: 1280.00. Targets: 1300.00, 1323.00, 1360.00 and 1385.00.
Sell Stop: 1277.00. Stop-Loss: 1286.00. Targets: 1257.00, 1250.00, 1238.00, 1218.00, 1210.00 and 1180.00.
The pair remains in the upoward channel.
Support level of 1275.00.