Last week the USD grew up against the major currencies and oil prices went up.
The most awaited event of last week is the interest rate decision by the Bank of England. The Bank has left the interest rate at the previous level. The head of the Bank of England Mr. Carney said that economic growth in the UK is slowing down due to the up-coming referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU. It is expected that after the referendum British economy may be close to recession. British Central Bank warned of possibility of the significant deterioration of economic growth prospects, a chance of the increase of unemployment rate and inflation, further decline in the GBP and also possibility of devaluation of the British assets in the event of the exit of the country from the EU.
After the decision by the Bank of England the price of the Pound fell in the currency market and the pair GBP/USD has dropped by over 100 points.
The news of this week will be as follows:
03:30 (GMT 2) – minutes of the last meeting of RBA. On 3 May RBA has lowered interest rate to 1.75% due to threat if deflation. The Bank has also lowered inflation forecast.
10:30 – UK macro-economic statistics, including consumer price index, (which is the key inflation indicator) and producer price index (which evaluates growth pace of inflation). High value of this index is a positive factor for the GBP.
11:00 – Trade balance in Eurozone for March.
14:30 – 15:15 – US statistics for April, including consumer price index, construction of new houses, industrial production and capacity utilization. The latter index evaluates economic growth and the level of demand. High level of this index may lead to inflation growth. Positive indicator will be favourable for the USD.
22:30 – American Petroleum Institute (API) will issue report on changes in the US oil reserves for the last week.
01:50 (GMT 2) – Preliminary Japanese GDP for Q1.
02:00 – Speech by president of RBNZ, Mr. Wheeler.
03:00 – Speech by Deputy of RBA Mr. Debelle.
09:00 – Meeting of the Governing Council of ECB devoted to monetary policy.
11:00 – European consumer price index for April.
16:30 – Weekly oil inventories report by US Department of Energy.
20:00 – Minutes of FOMC meeting, which will give comments on the US monetary policy, evaluates current risks to the US economy. The minutes will also shed light on the future monetary policy. Usually, the minutes have strong effect on the USD.
03:30 (GMT 2) – Australian data on unemployment and labor market. Usually this data has strong effect on the AUD.
10:30 – British retail sales index for April.
13:30 – Outcome of ECB meeting, including review of changes in the financial, economic and monetary policies of ECB.
14:30 – US data including number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the last week of May; business activity index in manufacturing sector (PMI) by Feb Philadelphia, which evaluates business environment and shows economic situation in the manufacturing sector.
01:50 – A meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of Japan, as the outcome of these meeting the Bank of Japan issue analysis of economic situation in the country, which will indicate future prospects of the financial policy.
14:30 – Canadian macro-economic statistics for March-April, including retail sales in March, consumer price indices (CPI) for April. These indices are important indicators of inflation. The Bank of Canada is aimed at reaching target inflation level of 1-3%. High CPI will have a positive impact on the Canadian dollar.