Overview and dynamics
NZD/USD pair has decreased by 5% from the level 0.7050 reached in mid-April, having broken through key support levels 0.6860 (23.6% Fibonacci correction level to the global decline of the pair from the level 0.8800, which began in July 2014 and EMA50 on the weekly chart) , 0.6795 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.6765 (EMA144).
Due to the positive statistics from New Zealand, NZD/USD pair has been up since the beginning of the week and returned to the important level 0.6795 (EMA200, EMA50), which acts as a resistance level on the daily chart. The upper line of the downward channel and EMA200 also pass this level on the 4-hour chart.
Today a number of major US and New Zealand data will be published starting from 15:45 (GMT 2). Depending on the results, both the breakdown of the level 0.6795, followed by an increase to the level 0.6860, and the return to the downtrend with closest target levels at 0.6765 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.6680 (May lows and the lower limit of the upward channel on the daily chart) are possible.
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts indicators have reversed to long positions, but on the weekly chart they remain on the side of the sellers.
Breakdown of the support level 0.6680 will open the way to further decline to the levels 0.6660, 0.6560 (the lower limit of the upward channel on the weekly chart).
Breakdown of this level will increase the risks of a further decline with the targets at 0.6400 and 0.6300 (2015 lows).
The alternative scenario implies breaking through resistance levels 0.6795, 0.6860 and further increase within the upward channel on the daily chart with the upper limit near the level 0.7100, with the targets at 0.6980, 0.7050 (May and April highs, EMA200 on the monthly chart), 0.7100, 0.7240 (Fibonacci level 38,2%).
Support levels: 0.6765, 0.6720, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6610, 0.6560
Resistance levels: 0.6795, 0.6820, 0.6860, 0.6910, 0.6980, 0.7050
Sell Stop 0.6770. Stop-Loss 0.6820. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6660, 0.6610, 0.6560, 0.6400
Buy Stop 0.6820. Stop-Loss 0.6780. Take-Profit 0.6860, 0.6900, 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7240
Important resistance level 0.6795
On the upper limit of the downward channel